feat(storm-intel): damage-probability homes estimate + pinned events total in header

useStormEvents:
- Replace flat 1800/sq mi estimate with damage probability multiplier per type:
  hail ≥2.0" = 95%, 1.75" = 80%, 1.5" = 65%, 1.25" = 45%, 1.0" = 30%, <1.0" = 15%;
  tornado = 20% (path << polygon), flood = 25%, wind = 40%, winter = 20-30%
- Expose damagePct on event object for display in drawer

StormIntelPage:
- pinnedHomes useMemo — sums estimatedHomes across event-pinned events
- Header homes stat switches to amber + "Est. Homes · N pinned" label when events are pinned;
  hover tooltip notes zones may overlap
- Drawer: "Est. Homes Affected" now shows "~X% damage probability" as sub-label

src/hooks/useStormEvents.js

@@ -111,9 +111,7 @@ function featureToEvent(feature, idx) {
         ? Math.round((new Date(expireTime) - new Date(issueTime)) / 60000)
         : null;
 
-    const areaSqMi     = Math.round(polygonAreaSqMi(polygon));
+    const areaSqMi = Math.round(polygonAreaSqMi(polygon));
-    // Suburban DFW density ~1 800 homes/sq mi — conservative (polygons often include open land)
-    const estHomes     = Math.round(areaSqMi * 1800);
 
     const type = ph === 'TO'                        ? 'tornado'
                : ph === 'FF'                        ? 'flood'
@@ -128,6 +126,25 @@ function featureToEvent(feature, idx) {
         : ph === 'FF'   ? 'moderate'
         : 'significant';
 
+    // Damage probability: fraction of homes in the warning zone likely to have claimable damage.
+    // Tornado path is far narrower than the warning polygon, so we discount heavily.
+    // Hail probability scales with hail size — golf ball (2"+) damages nearly everything it hits.
+    const damagePct =
+          ph === 'TO'                  ? 20
+        : ph === 'FF'                  ? 25
+        : ph === 'WS' || ph === 'BZ'  ? 30
+        : ph === 'WW' || ph === 'IS'  ? 20
+        : hailIn === null              ? 40   // SV wind only
+        : hailIn >= 2.0                ? 95
+        : hailIn >= 1.75               ? 80
+        : hailIn >= 1.5                ? 65
+        : hailIn >= 1.25               ? 45
+        : hailIn >= 1.0                ? 30
+        :                                15;  // <1" — cosmetic, rarely claimed
+
+    // Homes in zone × suburban DFW density (1 800/sq mi) × damage probability
+    const estHomes = Math.round(areaSqMi * 1800 * (damagePct / 100));
+
     return {
         id:                   `IEM-${WFO}-${ph}-${p.year ?? ''}-${p.eventid ?? idx}`,
         date:                 issueTime || new Date().toISOString(),
@@ -142,6 +159,7 @@ function featureToEvent(feature, idx) {
         areaName:             derivedAreaName(rawCoords, ph),
         county:               'Collin',
         areaSqMi,
+        damagePct,
         estimatedHomes:       estHomes > 0 ? estHomes : null,
         description:          `${PH_LABEL[ph] ?? ph} — NWS ${WFO}`,
         source:               'IEM/NWS',

src/pages/StormIntelPage.jsx

@@ -873,9 +873,11 @@ const StormDetailDrawer = ({ storm, open, onClose, onFlyTo, onAssignZone, canMan
                                     )}
                                     {storm.estimatedHomes > 0 && (
                                         <div className="rounded-xl bg-zinc-50 dark:bg-zinc-800/60 border border-zinc-100 dark:border-white/[0.06] p-3">
-                                            <p className="text-[10px] font-bold uppercase tracking-wider text-zinc-400 mb-1">Est. Homes</p>
+                                            <p className="text-[10px] font-bold uppercase tracking-wider text-zinc-400 mb-1">Est. Homes Affected</p>
                                             <p className="text-xl font-black text-zinc-900 dark:text-white">{storm.estimatedHomes.toLocaleString()}</p>
-                                            <p className="text-[10px] text-zinc-400">in warning zone</p>
+                                            <p className="text-[10px] text-zinc-400">
+                                                ~{storm.damagePct}% damage probability
+                                            </p>
                                         </div>
                                     )}
                                 </div>
@@ -1273,6 +1275,15 @@ const StormIntelPage = () => {
     const { forecast, loading: forecastLoading, alertDay, hasStormAlert } = useStormForecast();
     const { reports }                            = useStormReports();
 
+    // Homes affected by pinned events (sum; note polygons may overlap)
+    const pinnedHomes = useMemo(() => {
+        if (pinnedIds.size === 0) return null;
+        return [...pinnedIds]
+            .map(id => events.find(e => e.id === id))
+            .filter(Boolean)
+            .reduce((sum, e) => sum + (e.estimatedHomes ?? 0), 0);
+    }, [pinnedIds, events]);
+
     // Text search filter
     const displayEvents = useMemo(() => {
         if (!searchQuery.trim()) return events;
@@ -1458,9 +1469,16 @@ const StormIntelPage = () => {
                             <p className="text-[10px] font-bold uppercase tracking-wider text-zinc-400">Storms</p>
                         </div>
                         <div className="w-px h-8 bg-zinc-200 dark:bg-white/10" />
-                        <div className="text-right">
+                        <div className="text-right" title={pinnedHomes !== null ? 'Sum of est. damaged homes across pinned events — zones may overlap' : 'Est. homes with claimable damage across all visible events'}>
-                            <p className="text-xl font-black text-zinc-900 dark:text-white">{(totalHomes / 1000).toFixed(1)}k</p>
+                            <p className={`text-xl font-black ${pinnedHomes !== null ? 'text-amber-500' : 'text-zinc-900 dark:text-white'}`}>
-                            <p className="text-[10px] font-bold uppercase tracking-wider text-zinc-400">Homes</p>
+                                {pinnedHomes !== null
+                                    ? (pinnedHomes >= 1000 ? `${(pinnedHomes / 1000).toFixed(1)}k` : pinnedHomes.toLocaleString())
+                                    : (totalHomes >= 1000 ? `${(totalHomes / 1000).toFixed(1)}k` : totalHomes.toLocaleString())
+                                }
+                            </p>
+                            <p className="text-[10px] font-bold uppercase tracking-wider text-zinc-400">
+                                {pinnedHomes !== null ? `Est. Homes · ${pinnedIds.size} pinned` : 'Est. Homes'}
+                            </p>
                         </div>
                         <div className="w-px h-8 bg-zinc-200 dark:bg-white/10" />
                         <div className="text-right">