estimate wizard display dec for ggod better best packages

src/modules/estimateWizard/engine/hailProbability.js

@@ -55,6 +55,15 @@ export function computeHailRisk(input) {
     const p10Low = prob(lambdaLow, 10);
     const p10High = prob(lambdaHigh, 10);
 
+    // Never present a 100% historical probability — that reads as a certainty/guarantee,
+    // which this model explicitly is not (spec §6). High-activity areas push p10High to
+    // ~1.0, so cap the DISPLAYED band just under certainty. Underlying p10* values still
+    // drive the exposure tier and scoring unchanged.
+    const MAX_DISPLAY_PROB = 0.95;
+    const dispLow = Math.min(p10Low, MAX_DISPLAY_PROB);
+    const dispBase = Math.min(p10Base, MAX_DISPLAY_PROB);
+    const dispHigh = Math.min(p10High, MAX_DISPLAY_PROB);
+
     // Confidence score (0..1): sample size + window length + geocode precision.
     const sampleScore = clamp(count / 8, 0, 1);          // ~8+ events → strong
     const windowScore = clamp(years / 10, 0, 1);         // 10y window → full
@@ -74,7 +83,7 @@ export function computeHailRisk(input) {
         annualRate: +lambda.toFixed(3),
         maxHailInches,
         lastEventDate,
-        probability10yr: { low: pct(p10Low), base: pct(p10Base), high: pct(p10High) },
+        probability10yr: { low: pct(dispLow), base: pct(dispBase), high: pct(dispHigh) },
         confidence: confidenceLabel,
         confidenceValue,
         exposureTier,
@@ -87,7 +96,7 @@ export function computeHailRisk(input) {
                 : `This area has averaged about ${lambda.toFixed(1)} observed hail event(s) per year in the available dataset.`,
             probability: count === 0
                 ? 'There is not enough historical hail activity nearby to estimate a meaningful probability.'
-                : `Based on historical reports, the chance of at least one hail event in the next 10 years is estimated at ${pct(p10Low)}–${pct(p10High)}%, assuming future patterns resemble the past.`,
+                : `Based on historical reports, the chance of at least one hail event in the next 10 years is estimated at ${pct(dispLow)}–${pct(dispHigh)}%, assuming future patterns resemble the past.`,
             confidence: `Confidence: ${confidenceLabel}. This is based on county-level and nearby reports within ~${radiusMiles} miles, not a roof-specific inspection.`,
             lastUpdated: `Storm data reflects reports through ${new Date(generatedAt).toLocaleDateString()}.`,
         },